{"id":514,"date":"2023-02-28T07:14:40","date_gmt":"2023-02-28T07:14:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meridianoitalia.tv\/meridiano\/2023\/02\/28\/syria-s-approach-to-normalisation-of-relations-with-the-international-community\/"},"modified":"2023-02-28T07:14:40","modified_gmt":"2023-02-28T07:14:40","slug":"syria-s-approach-to-normalisation-of-relations-with-the-international-community","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meridianoitalia.tv\/meridiano\/2023\/02\/28\/syria-s-approach-to-normalisation-of-relations-with-the-international-community\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria\u2019s approach to normalisation of relations with the international community"},"content":{"rendered":"

di Amer Al Sabaileh<\/strong><\/p>\n

In his attempt to break the political embargo on Syria, President Bashar Al Assad recently took his first overseas trip since the deadly earthquake to Oman, where he met with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq. While Assad requested the meeting, the Sultan interestingly expressed his anticipation for Syria’s ties with all Arab countries returning to normal.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While this appears to be part of a process for Arab countries to reengage with Syria politically, it is more of an attempt to promote Syrian Arab relations. Ties between Syria and Oman were barely cut, and Oman was one of the first countries to send an ambassador back to Syria in 2020. So regardless of the public statements around the meeting and the perceptions of an important step forward in restoring Syrian relations with Arab countries, it is more of an attempt to promote this perception from two countries that have maintained ties, and Oman has well known success in backchannel influence on many issues, including Iranian-American negotiations over the years.<\/p>\n

While the catastrophe of the earthquake serves as cover for Syria to try to break down political taboos and encourage other countries to engage under the humanitarian cover, Assad faces the challenges of the official US position, live sanctions and the Caesar Act which makes it extremely difficult for the international community to engage. Add the perception of Russian and Iranian influence over Syria, opening doors with the Arab world is a good tactical step, even if they may not have enough influence to shift the US position. Oman is an obvious first step given their experience in building back channels to influence the US and having the trust of the Iranians.<\/p>\n

Qatar is also well positioned to play the role of mediator or back-channel sponsor, but when it comes to Syria, Qatar is one of very few Arab countries that maintains a hawkish anti-Assad position. Again, tactically this leaves Oman as the best option to help Syrians in seeking a change in US policy. This is not to say it will be easy, particularly because of the Russia and Iran connections, and the fact Syria is a proxy port for Russia on the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

While Oman may be the channel for the message, the catastrophe of the earthquake along with internal challenges, socio-economic hardship, and security threats such as the return of Daesh form the argument for Syria in promoting the need to lift sanctions and the Caesar Act. But it will also be expected that Syria will demonstrate its intentions to cooperate in fighting narcotrafficking in the region and even fighting terrorist groups who have started to make their presence known and attack various cities in Syria, for their campaign to even be considered.<\/p>\n

___________<\/p>\n

L’approccio della Siria alla normalizzazione delle relazioni con la comunit\u00e0 internazionale<\/strong><\/p>\n

di Amer Al Sabaileh<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nel suo tentativo di rompere l’embargo politico sulla Siria, il presidente Bashar Al Assad ha recentemente fatto il suo primo viaggio all’estero dopo il disastroso terremoto in Oman, dove ha incontrato il sultano Haitham bin Tariq. Mentre Assad ha richiesto l’incontro, il sultano ha espresso il suo auspicio che i legami della Siria con tutti i paesi arabi tornino presto alla normalit\u00e0.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Questo incontro potrebbe essere considerato da un lato l\u2019inizio di un processo per i paesi arabi di impegnarsi politicamente con la Siria, e ancor di pi\u00f9 un tentativo da parte siriana di promuovere le relazioni con i paesi arabi.<\/p>\n

I legami tra Siria e Oman nel corso degli ultimi anni sono stati solo in parte tagliati e l’Oman \u00e8 stato uno dei primi paesi a inviare un ambasciatore in Siria nel 2020. Quindi, indipendentemente dalle dichiarazioni pubbliche intorno all’incontro e dalle percezioni di un importante passo avanti nel ripristinare le relazioni siriane con i paesi arabi, \u00e8 pi\u00f9 un tentativo di promuovere questa percezione da parte di due paesi che in realt\u00e0 hanno mantenuto saldi i propri legami.<\/p>\n

L\u2019Oman ha, del resto, sempre avuto  successo nell’influenzare in modo pacato, dietro le quinte molte questioni, compresi i negoziati iraniano-americani nel corso degli anni.<\/p>\n

Mentre la catastrofe del terremoto \u00e8 utilizzata come giustificazione dalla Siria per cercare di abbattere i tab\u00f9 politici e incoraggiare altri paesi a impegnarsi sotto la copertura umanitaria, Assad affronta le sfide della posizione ufficiale degli Stati Uniti, delle sanzioni in diretta e del Caesar Act che rende estremamente difficile per la comunit\u00e0 internazionale impegnarsi. A ci\u00f2 si deve aggiungere la percezione dell’influenza russa e iraniana sulla Siria, in questo momento aprire le porte con il mondo arabo \u00e8 un buon passo strategico, anche se potrebbero non avere abbastanza influenza per spostare la posizione degli Stati Uniti. L’Oman \u00e8 un primo passo quasi scontato data la loro esperienza nella costruzione di canali secondari per influenzare gli Stati Uniti e avere la fiducia degli iraniani.<\/p>\n

In questo quadro anche il Qatar \u00e8 nella giusta posizione per svolgere il ruolo di mediatore o sponsor back-channel, ma quando si tratta di Siria, il Qatar \u00e8 uno dei pochissimi paesi arabi che mantiene una posizione anti-Assad. Ancora una volta, tatticamente questo lascia l’Oman come l’opzione migliore per aiutare i siriani a cercare un cambiamento nella politica degli Stati Uniti. Questo non vuol dire che sar\u00e0 facile, in particolare a causa delle connessioni con la Russia e l’Iran e il fatto che la Siria \u00e8 un porto per procura della Russia sul Mediterraneo.<\/p>\n

Mentre l’Oman pu\u00f2 essere il canale per il messaggio, la catastrofe del terremoto insieme alle sfide interne, alle difficolt\u00e0 socio-economiche e alle minacce alla sicurezza come il ritorno di Daesh concorrono a formare i giusti presupposti per la Siria nel promuovere la necessit\u00e0 di revocare le sanzioni e il Caesar Act.<\/p>\n

Ma ci si aspetta anche che la Siria dimostri le proprie intenzioni di cooperare nella lotta contro il narcotraffico nella regione e combattere i gruppi terroristici che hanno iniziato a evidenziare la propria presenza attaccando alcune citt\u00e0 in Siria. Solo dimostrando la propria intenzione di dialogare la Siria potrebbe trovare degli interlocutori validi che possano seguirla nella sua battaglia contro le sanzioni che la attanagliano.<\/p>\n

___________<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

di Amer Al Sabaileh<\/strong><\/p>\n

In his attempt to break the political embargo on Syria, President Bashar Al Assad recently took his first overseas trip since the deadly earthquake to Oman, where he met with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq. 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